The Poor Man’s Analyst

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LuHud Pinch Hitter

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Sorry for the lack of posting recently. I’ve been extremely busy, and will be for the next several weeks. I’m not sure how often I’ll be updating this blog, but I’m continuing with my one post per week at Statistically Speaking. Once the season starts, I’ll definitely continue regular posting.

Anyway, I contributed a guest post to the LoHud Yankees blog, run by Yankees beat writer Pete Abraham. The post can be found here. I wrote about evaluating trades and transations and such, and pretty much told the LuHud community (indirectly) to stop being so stupid and ignorant (but in a nice way).

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January 31, 2009 at 12:41 AM

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Big News

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If you’ve been reading here for…oh, I guess five minutes, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of both baseball and sabermetrics. About a week ago, I was contacted by Pizza Cutter (note: not his real name) of the Statistically Speaking blog about writing there. I’ve been a big fan of StatSpeak for about two years now, so it was with much joy that I accepted his invitation. My first post is about differing run environments, using the careers of Roy Halladay and Sandy Koufax to help illustrate the point.

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January 8, 2009 at 6:12 PM

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Intro to Sabermetrics

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I was looking at some blog stats tonight and realized that some people have missed some of the more important posts on this site, simply because they haven’t been on the front page. So I’m going to “reprint” some of them (probably only one more after this) in this space, in order to increase their popularity within the site. Read on… Read the rest of this entry »

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January 7, 2009 at 1:52 AM

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On the Money

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So you might remember that Bobby Abreu/Brett Gardner post from a little while back. If you don’t, here it is. But anyway, in that article, I concluded the following:

What does that mean? It means that in order for the Yankees to come out even in the Abreu for Gardner trade-off, all Garnder would have to do is hit .255/.345/.356 over a full season. If he can do that, the Yankees made the right decision in letting Abreu leave, even before you consider the money.

I’m bringing this up again now because the 2009 CHONE projections just came out. CHONE, as I’ve mentioned before, is the most accurate publicly available projection system. PECOTA is the most famous, but CHONE is just a hair worse and a whole lot more free.

Well here’s the good part… CHONE projects Gardner’s 2009 batting line to look like this: .258/.341/.345 and be 12 runs below average in 150 games (a few more games than I’d expect). I’d say that’s pretty dead on.

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December 17, 2008 at 11:33 PM

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Congratulations

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This seems kind of ironic for me to post after the comments in the previous post on Nate McLouth. But I’d like to congratulate Will Carroll, Christina Kahrl, Rob Neyer, and Keith Law on being admitted to the Baseball Writers Association of America. All four are extremely talented writers and analysts, and deserve to be in.

Does this mean that Keith Law will stop calling it the BBRAA?

(Hat tip: MLBTR)

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December 10, 2008 at 4:15 PM

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No Time

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I have a shit load of work to do the rest of the day today and probably into the wee hours of the morning, so I won’t be posting anything of significant value (that assumes that my previous posts have value). But tomorrow I’m going to be working on something involving odds ratios that I haven’t seen anybody do in the 2+ years I’ve been reading sabermetrics–hopefully it’s not a disaster. So stay tuned for that.

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December 7, 2008 at 4:21 PM

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