The Poor Man’s Analyst

On the Money

with 2 comments

So you might remember that Bobby Abreu/Brett Gardner post from a little while back. If you don’t, here it is. But anyway, in that article, I concluded the following:

What does that mean? It means that in order for the Yankees to come out even in the Abreu for Gardner trade-off, all Garnder would have to do is hit .255/.345/.356 over a full season. If he can do that, the Yankees made the right decision in letting Abreu leave, even before you consider the money.

I’m bringing this up again now because the 2009 CHONE projections just came out. CHONE, as I’ve mentioned before, is the most accurate publicly available projection system. PECOTA is the most famous, but CHONE is just a hair worse and a whole lot more free.

Well here’s the good part… CHONE projects Gardner’s 2009 batting line to look like this: .258/.341/.345 and be 12 runs below average in 150 games (a few more games than I’d expect). I’d say that’s pretty dead on.

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Written by dcn29

December 17, 2008 at 11:33 PM

Posted in Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. how accurate is CHONE?

    You told us what he needs to do.

    CHONE told us what he is gonna do. They need to have some sort of success rate posted….

    sportsheavenwithmarkandevan

    December 18, 2008 at 12:44 AM

  2. Ask and you shall receive…

    There are many ways to evaluate forecasting systems, as you’ll see in a minute. There’s a few presented here:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-how-did-tht-projections-do/

    Take note of the section that states the average error for young hitters, as it’s most relevant to Brett Gardner. There’s also this from 2007:
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564

    I can’t find anything else right now evaluating exactly how accurate they are. If I find something else later, I’ll post it here. Bottom line is, there are many answers to your original question.

    dcn29

    December 18, 2008 at 2:10 AM


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