On the Money
So you might remember that Bobby Abreu/Brett Gardner post from a little while back. If you don’t, here it is. But anyway, in that article, I concluded the following:
What does that mean? It means that in order for the Yankees to come out even in the Abreu for Gardner trade-off, all Garnder would have to do is hit .255/.345/.356 over a full season. If he can do that, the Yankees made the right decision in letting Abreu leave, even before you consider the money.
I’m bringing this up again now because the 2009 CHONE projections just came out. CHONE, as I’ve mentioned before, is the most accurate publicly available projection system. PECOTA is the most famous, but CHONE is just a hair worse and a whole lot more free.
Well here’s the good part… CHONE projects Gardner’s 2009 batting line to look like this: .258/.341/.345 and be 12 runs below average in 150 games (a few more games than I’d expect). I’d say that’s pretty dead on.